Welcome to the final First Friday episode of the year. Today, we’ll explore a unique moment in the U.S. economy: a missing jobs report, a divided Federal Reserve, a sluggish labor market, and a holiday shopping season influenced by AI, discount seekers, and low consumer confidence.
In this episode, we discuss:
Missing Jobs Report & Data Chaos: The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish data for two months, and October's figures will remain unreleased.
ADP Job Losses & Small Business Strain: The private-sector payroll report highlights significant job losses primarily from small businesses.
Fed Rate Decision — Without Data: The Fed will meet on December 9–10, needing to decide on interest rates without official employment data for the last two months.
Holiday Spending Trends: Cyber Week sales hit record levels, yet household budgets are declining, and discount stores are thriving.
AI-Assisted Shopping: More than half of consumers utilized AI to find deals, compare options, and monitor price changes, making this the most technology-driven holiday season to date.
Year-End Financial Moves: Important actions to consider before December 31, including 401(k) contributions, FSA deadlines, tax-loss harvesting, and strategies for charitable giving.
Key Takeaways
We're lacking essential economic data — this marks the first delay in a jobs report in 12 years, and it’s the first instance of a month being permanently blank.
Small businesses are most affected, with ADP reporting 32,000 job losses largely from firms with fewer than 50 employees.
The Fed may consider rate cuts, but internal disagreements have become notably public — a rarity since the early 1980s.
Consumer sentiment is low, with households spending less, despite total holiday sales reaching new highs.
AI has become a common tool for shopping, responsible for 22% of global Cyber Week sales.
It's time to get your finances in order for the end of the year, particularly for retirement plans, FSAs, tax planning, and charitable donations.
Resources & Links
Federal Reserve
ADP National Employment Report
Bureau of Labor Statistics
National Retail Federation holiday data
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Adobe Analytics Cyber Week report
Salesforce Shopping Index
Schwab Donor-Advised Fund
Previous First Friday Episode
Glossary
ADP Payroll Report: A monthly estimate of private-sector job creation derived from payroll data of ADP clients, often serving as a proxy when BLS data is unavailable.
JOLTS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey — assesses job openings, hiring, and resignations.
Consumer Sentiment: An indicator of the optimism or pessimism of households regarding their financial future.
Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD): A tax-efficient method for individuals aged 70½ and older to donate directly from an IRA to a charity.
Tax-Loss Harvesting: Selling investments at a loss to mitigate capital gains.
Timestamps
(Timestamps are approximate and may vary due to dynamic ad insertion.)
02:10 — Spotify Wrapped for Podcasters: Surprising Listener Overlap
06:45 — Explanation for the Missing BLS Jobs Report
12:30 — ADP Data: The Significant Impact on Small Businesses
18:55 — What the Fed Must Decide Without Official Employment Numbers
24:40 — Will Mortgage Rates Finally Drop Below 6%?
29:15 — Holiday Spending: Record Sales Amidst Shrinking Budgets
35:50 — Discount Chains Thrive While Middle-Market Retail Declines
41:20 — AI-Assisted Shopping: Monitoring Prices, Bots, & Customized Deals
46:10 — Buy Now, Pay Later Reaches $10B — Is It Beneficial or Detrimental?
49:55 — The Significant Increase in Giving Tuesday Donations
53:20 — Year-End Financial Strategies: 401(k)s, IRAs, FSAs, & Tax Preparation
59:00 — Final Thoughts: Implications for Your Finances in 2026
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