The headlines reported that the United States added 147,000 jobs in June, but the truth is that private businesses actually eliminated 33,000 positions. Graduate students have just lost their ability to borrow without limits, as Parent PLUS loans are now capped at $65,000. Meanwhile, tariffs are set to rise as high as 70 percent.
All these changes are happening simultaneously — affecting taxes, tariffs, student loans, and immigration policies. Data from the University of Michigan indicates that consumer sentiment is more negative than it was six months ago.
Welcome to the 4th of July First Friday episode. On the occasion of America’s 249th birthday, we delve into these economic issues.
Timestamps:
(Note: Timestamps may vary across different listening devices due to dynamic advertising run times. The timestamps provided are approximate and may differ by a few minutes due to changes in ad lengths.)
(0:00) Introduction
(1:19) Interesting historical facts about the Declaration of Independence
(2:28) Explanation of the statistical improbability of three presidents dying on July 4th
(4:24) Trump signs a domestic policy bill extending the tax cuts from 2017
(6:13) Changes to student loans — caps on borrowing and eliminations of repayment plans
(8:53) The expiration of the tariff pause on July 9th, with new rates announced
(12:00) Breakdown of original tariff rates using Lesotho as an example
(16:26) Comparison between job report headlines and the actual situation in the private sector
(22:54) ADP's report of private job losses alongside growth in government employment
(26:46) An 18 percent decline in consumer confidence since December
(30:59) Disparity between inflation expectations and the actual 2.4 percent rate
(34:19) The Federal Reserve adopts a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainty in policies
(36:58) The stagnation in the labor market reflects the strategy of the Federal Reserve
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The headlines announced that the United States created 147,000 jobs in June. However, the truth is that private businesses actually eliminated 33,000 jobs.